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Y siendo condicionante de toda la politica monetaria, termina siendolo de la posicion fiscal. <br /><br />Las politicas cambiarias de los emergentes, condicionando las tasas en la forma en que lo hicieron, abrieron politicas monetarias expansivas y asi, permitieron posiciones fiscales holgadas y por esto, esos paises constituian fondos de reserva(para politicas de insercion externa no hostiles a la exportacion ligada a los commodities y politicas internas no hostiles a apoyarse en tal exportacion para construir allende la misma).<br /><br />La politica cambiaria de Argentina, movilizando una politica monetaria contractiva, era inompatible con una posicion fiscal como la de los emergentes (asi como su modo de construccion interna se baso en la antitesis a apoyarse en la exportacion ligada a commodities).<br /><br />La politica cambiaria, via sus efectos monetarios, determina la posicion fiscal. <br /><br />Keynes escribio 4 libros de economia. Los primeros tres, son sobre cuestiones cambiarias-monetarias. Recien en el ultimo trata sobre la politica fiscal. <br /><br />Keynes planteo la politica fiscal como remedio para problemas ocasionados por o a traves de cuestiones cambiarias-monetarias.<br /><br />En cierto sentido, su idea es sobre que la politica fiscal opere sobre los problemas que causan las cuestiones cambiarias-monetarias, transitoriamente y para evitar que se agraven, mientras se pone en marcha la rectificacion de las cuestiones cambiarias-monetarias que causan tales problemas. <br /><br />Por tal razon, lo primero que hizo Keynes despues de proponer la politica fiscal, fue rediseñar el sistema cambiario-monetario mundial, que estaba causando problemas potenciales, y se involucro en diseñar el sistema Bretton-Woods.<br /><br />En la Argentina reciente, practicamente desaparecio el tema de la politica cambiaria-monetaria. Inexplicablemente. <br /><br />Desaparecio el tema de una politica cambiaria que no siguio ninguno de los emergentes que, por ende, tuvieron politicas monetarias expansivas.<br /><br />Es decir, el elemento primigenio de la teoria del ciclo economico (macroeconomia), desaparecio...<br /><br />Y desaparecio, cuando todos los emergentes siguieron politicas harto diferentes...lo que lo hace mas inexplicable aun.<br /><br />Y se termino en una especie de debate contradictorio en sus terminos, que pedia ortodoxia fiscal ante una heterodoxia cambiaria-monetaria.<br /><br />Por ejemplo, se pedia ortodoxia fiscal como la de los emergentes, cuando estos podian tenerla gracias a la expansividad lograda por su ortodoxia cambiaria, y mientras Argentina era diametralmente opuesta a tal...<br /><br />Practicamente, se cayo en la creencia de que la politica cambiaria de Argentina era expansiva, cuando fue <b>contractiva</b> hasta el dia de hoy. <br /><br />Tal vez hubo urgencias, y tal vez esas urgencias condujeron a apresurar las politicas. <br /><br />Lo inexplicable, es que habiendo habido urgencias y politicas cambiarias movidas por dichas urgencias, el debate economico posterior haya omitido el hecho la contractividad monetaria que sucedio a una politica cambiaria movida por urgencias sociales. <br /><br />Pero no es que se haya caido en semejante omision, a la vez que el debate se apagaba. El debate continuo efusivamente, simplemente descartando la discucion cambiaria y concentrandose (extraviadamente)por ejemplo, en la politica fiscal. Por ejemplo, pidiendo ortodoxia fiscal para acompañar la heterodoxia cambiaria (que no aplico casi ningun pais, en este periodo de la humanidad).Chespiritu del Bonsáihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08932574839665136581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9207343453451380290.post-58327697388275722762009-09-18T14:26:52.418-07:002009-09-18T14:26:52.418-07:00¿Entonces para vos lo que ocurra con la política c...¿Entonces para vos lo que ocurra con la política cambiaria y el mercado cambiario es condicionante respecto al mercado de tasas y commodities?<br /><br />¿No hubo "urgencias" en la Argentina (post 2002) que habrían determinado esa "originalidad" respecto a los otros emergentes?otihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14600476755788464227noreply@blogger.com