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13 de agosto de 2009

Política monetaria contractiva

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La no flotación y las retenciones dieron una política monetaria contractiva durante años.
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Cuando las principales monedas abrieron diferenciales positivos de tasas de interés de referencia contra las tasas del dólar, el dólar se devaluó contra todas esas monedas.
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El mercado de dinero de Argentina quedó desde entonces sujeto a un creciento riesgo de base.
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Es decir, las tasas de interés del mercado de dinero argentino, fueron reduciéndose continuamente en términos de todas las monedas diferentes del dólar (contra las que el peso se devaluó continuamente).
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Esto condujo a las tasas reales negativas de interés de corto plazo.
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Cuando las tasas de interés de corto plazo pierden valor en términos de una canasta de monedas, la consecuencia es que aumenta el riesgo de base, riesgo de prestar a plazos más largos, en los cuales la pérdida de valor de la tasa de interés aplicable tendría consecuencias más profundas en el manejo de una cartera (que debe atender cuestiones de liquidez, etc.).
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Por lo cual aquella devaluación contra la canasta de monedas, que restaba valor a las tasas de interés de corto plazo en los mercados crediticios, haciéndolas mas bajas en términos de tales monedas de modo ex-post (o ya implicitamente menores vía algunos mercados de futuros), constituyó una política monetaria altamente contractiva.
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Bajando valor a las tasas de interes de corto plazo en términos de dicha canasta, tal política creo las bases para una caída del plazo de la cartera del sistema, y un aumento de las tasas reales de interés de los plazos de mayor duración remanentes.
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Es decir, una política monetaria contractiva, que duró muchos años.
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Esta fué una piedra angular de llamado modelo productivo. La otra, fue la expansiva política fiscal.
Es decir, tal modelo consistio en una política monetaria altamente contractiva durante un período de gran bonanza exterior, junto a una política fiscal ampliamente expansiva.
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Precisamente a la inversa que los emergentes, que aplicaron políticas monetarias expansivas junto a fiscales contractivas.
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La combinación de políticas monetaria y fiscal del modelo argentino, sin embargo, era a diferencia de la de los emergentes flotantes, ampliamente implosiva, pues la expansividad de la política fiscal para compensar la contractividad de la monetaria (consistiendo aquella en una inversióon del aumento de los términos de intercambio) no solo dependía de buenas condiciones externas para compensar un comportamiento del sistema financiero argentino que, por aversión al riesgo sistémico creado por la contractividad de la politica monetaria llevada adelante por el BCRA operóo en la forma divergente en que lo hizo, sino que por esto último, debió ser cada vez mayor, en la medida en que dicho comportamiento financiero local a lo largo del tiempo fue crecientemente divergente (por averso al riesgo sistémico) con los mínimos objetivos de la política económica.
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En cambio, para los emergentes flotantes no existió tal divergencia, sino que, sus sistemas financieros operaron de manera convergente con los objetivos de la política económica general y de esa forma no se abrió ninguna brecha creciente entre sus politicas fiscales y monetarias.
De manera que de ambas clases de macroeconomias, una fue socialmente sana y otra no. Y en la actualidad, la votación a por el manejo de las retenciones no es otra cosa que la votación a por el manejo de una políitica fiscal mas o menos expansiva, cuando posiblemente la politica monetaria sigue siendo, como hasta ahora y por decisión políitica (aunque con gran conflictividad socio-política), contractiva.
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